As of Saturday, January 11, 2025, the dollar to naira exchange rate in the Lagos parallel market (commonly referred to as the black market) is as follows:
- Buying rate: N1660 per dollar
- Selling rate: N1670 per dollar
This information was sourced from Bureau De Change (BDC) operators.
Important Note on the Parallel Market
It’s important to highlight that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize the parallel market. The CBN has advised individuals and businesses seeking foreign exchange (forex) to utilize official banking channels rather than resorting to black market transactions.
Current Exchange Rates Overview
Black Market Rates (USD to NGN)
- Buying Rate: N1660
- Selling Rate: N1670
CBN Official Rates (USD to NGN)
- Highest Rate: N1548
- Lowest Rate: N1538
Please note that the actual rates for buying or selling forex may vary depending on location, negotiation, and market conditions.
Nigeria’s Inflation Outlook for 2025
Nigeria’s economic challenges, including currency devaluation and rising fuel prices, continue to drive inflation. The headline inflation rate is projected to average 30.5% year-on-year in 2025 but is expected to decline to 27.1% by December, according to a recent report from the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) and Stanbic IBTC’s Business Confidence Monitor.
Inflation Drivers and Projections
The report anticipates that inflation will remain elevated for most of the year, particularly during the first nine months, due to persistent high fuel prices and economic pressures. However, a gradual easing is expected from September 2025 as the effects of high petrol costs diminish in year-on-year inflation calculations—provided there are no unexpected price shocks.
“We expect headline inflation to remain sticky in the first nine months of 2025 but settle below 30.0% from September as high petrol costs are smoothed out of year-on-year calculations,” the report stated.
The report also attributed the projected inflation decline to the expected stabilization of the exchange rate, improvements in food supply, and potential reductions in fiscal deficits.
Impact on Monetary Policy and the Economy
Lower inflation rates could prompt the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to adopt a more accommodative stance later in the year. This policy shift could foster economic growth by encouraging consumer spending and improving business activities.
“In our view, a lower inflation environment in the second half of 2025, alongside the gradual impact of key government reforms like FX liberalization and fuel subsidy removal, will create opportunities for enhanced consumer spending and business recovery,” the report concluded.
Key Takeaways
- The black market exchange rate for the dollar currently ranges between N1660 (buying) and N1670 (selling).
- Official CBN rates are lower, with a highest rate of N1548 and a lowest rate of N1538.
- Headline inflation is projected to average 30.5% in 2025 but is expected to decline to 27.1% by December, driven by easing petrol price effects and economic reforms.
As economic conditions continue to evolve, businesses and consumers are advised to stay informed and make prudent financial decisions based on the latest market developments.
