Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, has emerged as a central figure in efforts to block President Bola Tinubu’s second-term bid in 2027.
His recent defection from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has sent shockwaves through Nigeria’s political landscape.
Internal Conflict in SDP Over El-Rufai’s Influence
El-Rufai’s entry into the SDP has already stirred tensions within the party. His supporters recently staged a protest at the SDP’s national headquarters in Abuja, demanding the resignation of National Secretary Olu Agunloye.
The protesters accused Agunloye of financial misconduct related to the $6 billion Mambilla power project, a case for which he is currently facing trial. However, party insiders suggest that El-Rufai’s camp sees Agunloye’s past ties to Tinubu as a bigger issue than the legal allegations against him.
“El-Rufai’s allies believe that having someone from the South-West as SDP’s National Secretary does not align with their mission to stop a South-West candidate—Tinubu—from securing a second term,” a source told Vanguard.
Speculations on Tinubu’s Past Links to SDP
Some analysts believe Tinubu may have foreseen El-Rufai’s move and already established quiet influence over the SDP.
Before the 2022 APC presidential primary, there were rumors that Tinubu considered defecting to the SDP due to internal resistance within the Buhari administration. Though never officially confirmed, some suspect the SDP was once Tinubu’s “Plan B” before he secured the APC ticket.
El-Rufai’s Rocky History with Tinubu and the APC
El-Rufai’s fallout with Tinubu is viewed as political payback for past tensions.
In 2019, El-Rufai famously stated that he had “dismantled godfathers” in Kaduna politics and suggested Lagos politicians should do the same—widely seen as an indirect challenge to Tinubu’s influence.
However, ahead of the 2022 APC presidential primary, he reversed course and threw his support behind Tinubu, recognizing his financial and political strength. This last-minute backing earned him favor, with many expecting him to take a key role in Tinubu’s administration.
Yet, his ministerial nomination for the Energy portfolio was blocked by the Senate, reportedly due to security concerns.
Allegations of Political Sabotage
Though the Senate cited security concerns as the reason for rejecting El-Rufai, sources within the legislature suggest no official report was ever circulated among lawmakers.
“Senate President Akpabio told us there was a security issue with El-Rufai from the DSS, but no report was presented to back the claim,” an anonymous senator told Vanguard.
This lack of transparency has led to speculation that Tinubu himself may have orchestrated the move to keep El-Rufai out of his cabinet. Reports indicate that El-Rufai may even take legal action against Senate President Godswill Akpabio to compel the release of the alleged security report used to block his appointment.
El-Rufai’s 2027 Plans: Kingmaker, Not Candidate
Despite widespread speculation about his political ambitions, insiders insist that El-Rufai is not planning to contest the 2027 presidential election. Instead, he is focused on mobilizing opposition forces to weaken Tinubu’s chances of re-election.
“He is not running for office; he is simply working to send Tinubu and his people back to Lagos,” a source close to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar revealed.
As Nigeria moves closer to the 2027 elections, El-Rufai’s moves within the opposition will be closely watched, as they could shape the political landscape in the years ahead.
