Efforts to form a formidable opposition coalition ahead of the 2027 presidential election are encountering serious roadblocks, primarily due to internal disagreements over zoning and the potential candidacy of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.
Insiders involved in the discussions have disclosed that two major factions—supporters of the 2023 Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and those aligned with former Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi—are pushing for power to remain in the South for the next eight years. This stance has complicated coalition negotiations, as Atiku’s camp remains focused on securing another shot at the presidency, potentially disrupting the power-sharing expectations of Southern political leaders.
Power Zoning Complicates Coalition Talks
A well-placed source revealed that zoning demands have stalled the dialogue, creating friction among key opposition figures. “The issue of power rotation is a major sticking point. Some Southern leaders feel that after President Bola Tinubu’s tenure, the presidency should remain in the South. However, Atiku’s continued interest in the 2027 race is making it difficult to reach a consensus,” the source stated.
There is growing hesitation among coalition members, especially from the South, to fully commit to the talks without clear assurances about zoning. Many fear that supporting the coalition without securing a Southern presidential candidate could ultimately undermine their political ambitions and regional interests.
Atiku’s Role in the Coalition Sparks Uncertainty
Despite publicly advocating for opposition unity, Atiku’s involvement in the coalition remains controversial. His previous bids for the presidency in 2019 and 2023 have raised concerns among Southern politicians who believe he might once again dominate the race at their expense.
“The fear is that if the coalition does not explicitly agree to back a Southern candidate, Atiku could use the platform to advance his own presidential ambition, just as he did in previous elections. That uncertainty is why some key figures are staying on the sidelines for now,” the source explained.
El-Rufai’s Defection Fuels Opposition Momentum
The coalition gained traction following the recent defection of former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP). His move on March 10 has injected fresh energy into opposition efforts, drawing attention from various political stakeholders.
A recent press conference marking the coalition’s official launch was attended by prominent opposition figures, including former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal; National Secretary of the Coalition of United Political Parties, Peter Ahmeh; and the Convenor of The Alternative, Segun Showunmi.
However, several notable opposition figures, including former governors Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers), Kayode Fayemi (Ekiti), and former APC National Chairman, Abdullahi Adamu, were absent but reportedly sent apologies, further fueling speculation about internal divisions.
Future of the Coalition Hinges on Zoning Consensus
Political observers believe that unless the coalition resolves the zoning debate and clarifies Atiku’s role, progress will remain stalled. “The challenge is not whether opposition leaders agree on the need for unity—they do. The real issue is whether they can agree on who should lead the charge in 2027,” the source added.
With several opposition heavyweights eyeing the presidency, including Obi and Amaechi, reaching a consensus on zoning is critical. Until that happens, many stakeholders may continue to watch from the sidelines, hesitant to commit to a coalition that could ultimately favor Atiku at the expense of Southern aspirations.
As negotiations continue, the question remains: can the opposition unite behind a single candidate, or will internal rivalries once again undermine their chances in 2027?
